The 10th House of Representatives yesterday adopted the Federal Government’s proposed crude oil benchmark of $64.85 per barrel for 2026, diverging from the Senate, which earlier approved a lower $60 benchmark under the 2026–2028 Medium Term Expenditure Framework and Fiscal Strategy Paper (MTEF/FSP).
The House decision followed the consideration and adoption of a report by its committees on Finance, National Planning and Economic Development, which endorsed the executive’s oil price assumptions of $64.85, $64.30 and $65.50 per barrel for 2026, 2027 and 2028, respectively.
This came ahead of the presentation of the 2026 Budget by President Bola Tinubu.
In contrast, the 10th Senate, while approving the MTEF/FSP, on Tuesday reviewed the oil benchmark downward for 2026 to $60 per barrel, citing global economic uncertainties, before adjusting it to $65 for 2027 and $70 for 2028.
The Chairman of the Senate Committee on Finance, Sani Musa (APC, Niger-East), had told lawmakers that the adjustment was informed by geopolitical tensions in Europe and the Middle-East, as well as volatility in the global oil market, stressing the need for fiscal caution.
Despite the disagreement on oil price benchmarks, both chambers retained the same crude oil production projections of 1.84 million barrels per day (mbpd) for 2026, 1.88 mbpd for 2027 and 1.92 mbpd for 2028.
The lawmakers approved exchange rate projections of ₦1,512, ₦1,432.15 and ₦1,383.18 for 2026, 2027 and 2028, respectively, in line with the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN)’s policy to stabilise the naira and strengthen fiscal and monetary policy coordination.
The House also endorsed inflation targets of 16.5% for 2026, 13% for 2027 and nine percent for 2028, citing the commitment of monetary authorities to moderate inflationary pressures.
On economic growth, the lawmakers sustained the real GDP growth projections of 4.68%, 5.96% and 7.9% for 2026, 2027 and 2028, respectively, expressing optimism that ongoing reforms and the anticipated gains from new tax laws would begin to yield results from 2026.
The House further recommended the effective implementation of the newly enacted Tax Acts as key instruments for driving economic reforms, growth and development.
On the fiscal framework, the House sustained the 2026 Federal Government Budget estimates, including proposed spending of ₦54.46 trillion, of which ₦31.83 trillion is expected as retained revenue. New borrowings were put at ₦20.38 trillion, covering both domestic and foreign loans, while debt servicing was estimated at ₦15.52 trillion.
Capital expenditure, exclusive of transfers, was sustained at ₦20.131 trillion, alongside Statutory transfers of ₦3.152 trillion and a Sinking Fund provision of ₦388.54 billion. In addition, total Recurrent (non-debt) expenditure was projected at ₦15.265 trillion, while Special interventions for Recurrent and Capital spending were pegged at ₦200 billion and ₦14 billion, respectively.
The House also sustained other key macro-economic assumptions, including projected exchange rates, inflation targets and GDP growth estimates, arguing that anticipated gains from tax reforms and broader economic restructuring would support fiscal stability over the medium-term.
